MERIDIAN SCAN
Непрерывное сканирование среды, еженедельные дайджесты сигналов
Continuous environmental scanning with weekly signal digests.
CA$1.5–4k/moView →
Forecasting
Forecasting and predictive intelligence
Calibrated, dated and falsifiable forecasts — with the indicators that would prove them wrong stated up front.
Forecasting
Forecasting and predictive intelligence
Calibrated, dated and falsifiable forecasts — with the indicators that would prove them wrong stated up front.
01
MERIDIAN foresight cycle
The full loop: scan the environment, stress the strategy, build the response, and keep watching after the decision.
Services in this desk
MERIDIAN STRESS
Пре-мортем и бэккастинг: выявляет решение и меры митигации
Pre-mortem and backcasting; surfaces the decision and its mitigations.
CA$2.5–5kView →
MERIDIAN BUILD
Документ стратегического форсайта со сценариями 2×2
Strategic foresight document with 2×2 scenarios.
CA$10–25kView →
MERIDIAN WATCH
Квартальный мониторинг индикаторов и ключевых рисков
Quarterly monitoring of indicators and key risk indicators.
CA$3–8k/moView →
Competitive Intelligence Synthesis
Конкурентная разведка, встроенная в решения
Competitive intelligence built into the decisions it serves.
CA$6–14kView →
Geopolitical Risk Brief
Оценка геополитического риска под конкретное решение
Geopolitical risk assessment scoped to a specific decision.
CA$5–12kView →
02
Signals and early warning
Reading the environment before it changes: signal calls, indicator systems, macro briefs and historical analogues.
Services in this desk
Anticipatory Read (MERIDIAN Signal Call)
Чёткий направленный прогноз: что идёт и почему
A clear directional call: what is coming and why.
CA$2.5–6kView →
Indicators & Warning System (I&W)
Индивидуальные индикаторы раннего предупреждения и пороги
Bespoke early-warning indicators and thresholds.
CA$8–16kView →
Geopolitical & Macro Forecast Brief
Направленный прогноз по геополитике и макроэкономике
A directional forecast on geopolitics and macro.
CA$6–15kView →
Pattern & Analogue Analysis
Структурный анализ исторических прецедентов и аналогов
Structured analysis of historical precedents and analogues.
CA$7–15kView →
03
Probability and timing
Putting numbers and dates on uncertainty: probabilistic forecasts, scenario weights, Bayesian updating and decision timing.
Services in this desk
Probabilistic Forecast
Калиброванные вероятности по конкретным исходам (логика Tetlock)
Calibrated probabilities on specific outcomes, in the Tetlock tradition.
CA$6–14kView →
Scenario-to-Probability Model
Перевод сценариев F-103 во взвешенные вероятности и триггеры
Converts F-103 scenarios into weighted probabilities and triggers.
CA$8–18kView →
Decision-Timing Forecast
Прогноз окна для действия: когда, а не только произойдёт ли
When, not only whether: forecasting the window for action.
CA$7–16kView →
Bayesian Forecast Updating
Вероятности обновляются по мере поступления данных (Байес)
Probabilities maintained and updated as evidence arrives.
CA$3–8k/moView →
04
Challenge and calibration
Testing our own work: red-team wargames, forecast audits, analytic technique workshops and a standing forecast retainer.
Services in this desk
Wargame / Red-Team Forecast
Прогноз с позиции противника: что сделает конкурент
Forecasting from the adversary's seat: what the competitor will do.
CA$10–22kView →
Forecast Audit & Calibration Review
Разбор прошлых прогнозов по Brier score и улучшение процесса
Reviewing past forecasts by Brier score and improving the process.
CA$6–14kView →
Structured Analytic Techniques Workshop
Воркшоп структурированных техник: ACH / Delphi, Heuer
Facilitated ACH / Delphi group forecasting; Heuer.
CA$8–18kView →
MERIDIAN Forecast Retainer
Непрерывные прогнозы, быстрая поддержка решений, доступ к основателю
Continuous forecasting, fast decision support, founder access.
CA$4–10k/moView →
Forecasting
Related cases
Strategic Foresight Engagement
"Ahead of a major capital allocation or a big bet, we are not confident we see the whole picture."
from $7,500 CADView →
Scenario Stress-Test
"We are preparing a major deal or investment and need an independent stress test of scenarios and risks."
from $6,000 CADView →
Strategy Build & Backcasting
"We have a vision, but no translation of foresight into a concrete strategy and action plan."
On requestView →
Foresight Watch — continuous monitoring
"The market, regulation or geopolitics regularly catch us off guard."
SubscriptionView →
Forecasts are probabilities, not guarantees. Every forecast carries a date, a probability, the evidence behind it and the signals that would change it; calibration is reviewed openly.