12 services
Forecasting & Predictive Intelligence
MERIDIAN engine: Ni + AI verification + calibration.
Mandates in this practice
Anticipatory Read (MERIDIAN Signal Call)
A clear directional call: what is coming and why.
Probabilistic Forecast
Calibrated probabilities on specific outcomes, in the Tetlock tradition.
Scenario-to-Probability Model
Converts F-103 scenarios into weighted probabilities and triggers.
Indicators & Warning System (I&W)
Bespoke early-warning indicators and thresholds.
Geopolitical & Macro Forecast Brief
A directional forecast on geopolitics and macro.
Decision-Timing Forecast
When, not only whether: forecasting the window for action.
Pattern & Analogue Analysis
Structured analysis of historical precedents and analogues.
Wargame / Red-Team Forecast
Forecasting from the adversary's seat: what the competitor will do.
Bayesian Forecast Updating
Probabilities maintained and updated as evidence arrives.
Forecast Audit & Calibration Review
Reviewing past forecasts by Brier score and improving the process.
Structured Analytic Techniques Workshop
Facilitated ACH / Delphi group forecasting; Heuer.
MERIDIAN Forecast Retainer
Continuous forecasting, fast decision support, founder access.